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The 2026 Senedd election is due to be held on 7 May 2026[1][2] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which increases the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopts a party-list voting system, reduces the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortens its term from five years to four.[3][4]
Background
[edit]In the 2021 Senedd election, Welsh Labour won another government with just one seat short of their first-ever majority.[5] At the 2022 Welsh local elections, the Welsh Conservatives suffered losses to Plaid Cymru and Labour.[6] In the 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales, Labour won the most seats and the Conservatives were wiped out losing all their Welsh seats.[7]
In September 2025, following the Angela Rayner tax scandal that led to her resignation and a Labour Party deputy leadership election, the subsequent cabinet reshuffle, and the dismissal of Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the United States over the latter's association with Jeffrey Epstein, criticisms of Starmer's leadership became more prominent within the Labour party. MPs reportedly viewed underperformance in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections and next Senedd election as a likely catalyst for a leadership challenge.[8]
Polls have suggested a neck and neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.[9] The 2026 vote is considered to be seismic for Welsh politics[10] and is being touted as the "most consequential Senedd election since 1999".[11]
Electoral system
[edit]In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.
Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[12][13]
The new system would, however, be ready to be used only for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.[14] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.[15]
Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women. However, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.[16]
Constituencies
[edit]
Incumbent Senedd members
[edit]MSs who have announced their retirement are in italics.
Candidates
[edit] | This section needs additional citations for verification. (August 2025) |
NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election who are seeking re-election are bolded.[17]
| Constituency | Order | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | Reform UK | Liberal Democrats | Green | Others and independents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Ogwr Rhondda | 1 | Huw Irranca-Davies | Sera Evans | Dean Ronan | ||||
| 2 | Buffy Williams | Alun Cox | ||||||
| 3 | David Rees | Elyn Stephens | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Bangor Conwy Môn | 1 | Rhun ap Iorwerth | Janet Finch-Saunders | Leena Farhat | Tomos Barlow | |||
| 2 | Mair Rowlands | |||||||
| 3 | Elfed Williams | |||||||
| 4 | Dyfed Jones | |||||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni | 1 | Alun Davies | Delyth Jewell | Anne Baker | ||||
| 2 | Lindsay Whittle | |||||||
| 3 | Niamh Salkeld | |||||||
| 4 | Catrin Moss | |||||||
| 5 | Charlotte Bishop | |||||||
| 6 | Steve Skivens | |||||||
| Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd | 1 | Sioned Williams | James Evans | Jane Dodds | ||||
| 2 | Beca Phillips | William Powell | ||||||
| 3 | Andrew Jenkins | Jackie Charlton | ||||||
| 4 | Justin Horrell | Phoebe Jenkins | ||||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf | 1 | Dafydd Trystan | Joel James | Rodney Berman | Paul Rock | |||
| 2 | Zaynub Akbar | Nick Beckett | ||||||
| 3 | Nick Carter | |||||||
| 4 | Andrea Gibson | |||||||
| 5 | Joseff Gnagbo | |||||||
| 6 | Morgan Barber-Rogers | |||||||
| Caerdydd Penarth | 1 | Anna Brychan | Calum Davies | Anthony Slaughter | ||||
| 2 | Kiera Marshall | Tessa Marshall[18] | ||||||
| 3 | Leticia Gonzalez | |||||||
| 4 | Neil Roberts | |||||||
| 5 | Malcolm Phillips | |||||||
| 6 | Mathew Hawkins | |||||||
| Casnewydd Islwyn | 1 | Natasha Asghar | Mike Hamilton | Rachel Roberts | ||||
| 2 | John Miller | |||||||
| 3 | Jake Enea | |||||||
| 4 | ||||||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Ceredigion Penfro | 1 | Eluned Morgan | Elin Jones | Paul Davies | Sandra Jervis | Amy Nicholass | ||
| 2 | Kerry Ferguson | Samuel Kurtz | Alistair Cameron | Tomass Jerminovics | ||||
| 3 | Anna Nicholl | Claire George | James Purchase | |||||
| 4 | Cris Tomos | Brian Murphy | Morgan Phillips | |||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Clwyd | 1 | Hannah Blythyn | Llyr Gruffydd | Darren Millar | David Wilkins[19] | Martyn Hogg | ||
| 2 | Carolyn Thomas | Becca Martin | Gareth Davies | |||||
| 3 | Oliver Bradley-Hughes | |||||||
| 4 | ||||||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Fflint Wrecsam | 1 | Ken Skates | Carrie Harper | Sam Rowlands | Lee Lavery | |||
| 2 | Jack Sargeant | Marc Jones | ||||||
| 3 | Kayleigh Unitt | |||||||
| 4 | Dean Davies | |||||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Gwynedd Maldwyn | 1 | Siân Gwenllian | Glyn Preston | |||||
| 2 | Mabon ap Gwynfor | |||||||
| 3 | Beca Brown | |||||||
| 4 | Elwyn Vaughan | |||||||
| 5 | Elin Hywel | |||||||
| 6 | Donna O'Brien | |||||||
| Gŵyr Abertawe | 1 | Gwyn Williams | Tom Giffard | Sam Bennett | Chris Evans | |||
| 2 | Safa Elhassan | Franck Banza | ||||||
| 3 | John Davies | |||||||
| 4 | Rhiannon Barrar | |||||||
| 5 | Dafydd Williams | |||||||
| 6 | Sharon-Rose Taylor | |||||||
| Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg | 1 | Sarah Murphy | Mark Hooper | Andrew RT Davies | Steven Rajam | Amy Greenfield | ||
| 2 | Sarah Rees | |||||||
| 3 | Luke Fletcher | |||||||
| 4 | Marianne Cowpe | |||||||
| 5 | Becci Smart | |||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr | 1 | Heledd Fychan | Neil Feist | Angela Karadog | ||||
| 2 | Lis McLean | |||||||
| 3 | Sara Crowley | |||||||
| 4 | ||||||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Sir Fynwy Torfaen | 1 | Lynne Neagle | Peter Fox | Kevin Wilkins | Ian Chandler | |||
| 2 | Ben Callard | Richard John | Brendan Roberts | |||||
| 3 | Laura Wright | Lisa Dymock | ||||||
| 4 | Catrin Maby | Nathan Edmunds | ||||||
| 5 | ||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||
| Sir Gaerfyrddin | 1 | Cefin Campbell | ||||||
| 2 | Nerys Evans | |||||||
| 3 | Adam Price | |||||||
| 4 | Mari Arthur | |||||||
| 5 | Iwan Griffiths | |||||||
| 6 | Abi Thomas | |||||||
Campaign
[edit]| This article is part of a series within the Politics of the United Kingdom on the |
| Politics of Wales |
|---|
 |
On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here". She also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them.[20] A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different."[21]
In April 2025 Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said his party "would work with any other Senedd party" and that the new voting system means "it's not going to be easy" to win an overall majority.[22]
Opinion polling
[edit]For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituences used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep – 12 Oct 2025 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 533 | 23% | 11% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 30% | 1% | 7 |
| 4–10 Sep 2025 | YouGov | Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 1,232 | 14% | 11% | 30% | 6% | 6% | 29% | 4% | 1 |
| 18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 400 | 27% | 13% | 21% | 6% | 5% | 25% | 2% | 2 |
| 18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025 | More in Common | Sky News | 883 | 23% | 10% | 26% | 4% | 7% | 28% | 2% | 2 |
| 5–16 Jun 2025 | FindOutNow | N/A | 2,101 | 18% | 11% | 27% | 7% | 7% | 29% | 1% | 2 |
| 23–30 Apr 2025 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 1,265 | 18% | 13% | 30% | 5% | 7% | 25% | 2% | 5 |
| 10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 | Survation | N/A | 809 | 27% | 15% | 24% | 5% | 5% | 24% | 1% | 3 |
| 3–23 Mar 2025 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 1,000 | 27% | 16% | 24% | 5% | 4% | 23% | 1% | 3 |
| 25–29 Nov 2024 | YouGov[24] | Barn Cymru | 1,121 | 23% | 19% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 23% | 1% | 1 |
| 4–24 Nov 2024 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 500 | 27% | 18% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 24% | 2% | 3 |
| 18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 | Survation[s 1] | Reform UK | 2,006 | 29% | 18% | 20% | 7% | 7% | 19% | 1% | 9 |
| 6 Aug 2024 | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales[25] | ||||||||||
| 5–18 Jul 2024 | Welsh Election Study | N/A | 2,565 | 25% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 8%
AWA on 7% Other on 1% |
1 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 United Kingdom general election | ||||||||||
| 27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,072 | 27% | 18% | 23% | 5% | 6% | 18% | 3% | 4 |
| 5–7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 960 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 2%
AWA on 2% Other on 0% |
14 |
| 30 May – 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,066 | 30% | 19% | 23% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 7 |
| 18–19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 37% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 10% | 5%
AWA on 5% Other on 0% |
17 |
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | ||||||||||
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election (regional)[26] | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 8.2% | 11.1 | |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election (constituency)[26] | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 13.8 | |
Retiring members
[edit]The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:
| MS | Constituency/Region | First elected | Party | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drakeford | Cardiff West | 2011 | Labour | 9 August 2023[27] | |
| Vaughan Gething | Cardiff South and Penarth | 2011 | Labour | 7 September 2024[28] | |
| Lee Waters | Llanelli | 2016 | Labour | 24 October 2024[29] | |
| Dawn Bowden | Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | 2016 | Labour | 17 January 2025[30] | |
| Mick Antoniw | Pontypridd | 2011 | Labour | 24 January 2025[31] | |
| Joyce Watson | Mid and West Wales | 2007 | Labour | 25 January 2025[32] | |
| Rebecca Evans | Gower | 2011 | Labour | 8 February 2025 | |
| Julie Morgan | Cardiff North | 2011 | Labour | 11 February 2025[33] | |
| Lesley Griffiths | Wrexham | 2007 | Labour | 14 February 2025[34] | |
| John Griffiths | Newport East | 1999 | Labour | 17 February 2025[35] | |
| Jane Hutt | Vale of Glamorgan | 1999 | Labour | 21 February 2025[36] | |
| Julie James | Swansea West | 2011 | Labour | 21 February 2025[36] | |
| Jenny Rathbone | Cardiff Central | 2011 | Labour | 21 February 2025[37] | |
| Russell George | Montgomeryshire | 2011 | Conservatives | 22 April 2025[38] | |
| Jeremy Miles | Neath | 2016 | Labour | 19 September 2025[39] | |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Labelled using their sole Welsh names, with Caerdydd being the Welsh name for Cardiff
- ^ The British Polling Council states that a sample size of at least 1,000 is the "established norm" for any poll in Great Britain. However, there is no "minimum" acceptable sample size.[23]
- ^ Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.
See also
[edit]- Next Scottish Parliament election
- Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
- 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
- 2024 United Kingdom general election
References
[edit]- ^ Lewis, Gareth (22 September 2025). "Is Wales set for a once-in-a-century political shift?". BBC News. Retrieved 20 October 2025.
- ^ "Senedd Elections 2026". Carmarthenshire County Council. 26 September 2025. Retrieved 19 October 2025.
- ^ Mansfield, Mark (8 May 2024). "MSs approve Senedd reform bill". Nation.Cymru.
- ^ Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (8 May 2024). "Senedd expansion plans get go-ahead in Cardiff Bay vote". BBC Wales.
- ^ "Welsh election results 2021: Labour's road to victory in numbers". BBC News. 7 May 2021. Retrieved 20 September 2025.
- ^ "Welsh election results 2022: Tory losses amid Labour and Plaid gains". BBC News. Retrieved 20 September 2025.
- ^ "General election: Conservatives lose all their seats in Wales". Sky News. Retrieved 20 September 2025.
- ^ Walker, Peter; Courea, Eleni; Crerar, Pippa (12 September 2025). "Keir Starmer warned 'time running out' to repair faltering premiership". The Guardian. Retrieved 12 September 2025.
- ^ Mosalski, Ruth (16 September 2025). "Bombshell poll puts Wales on course to change beyond all recognition". Wales Online. Retrieved 20 September 2025.
- ^ "Senedd election 'could be seismic for Welsh politics', expert says". BBC News. 6 May 2025. Retrieved 20 September 2025.
- ^ "Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar: 'We can pull it back'". BBC News. 20 September 2025. Retrieved 20 September 2025.
- ^ "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
- ^ "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
- ^ "Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024". legislation.gov.uk.
- ^ "See exactly when the next election in Wales will be". South Wales Argus. 20 September 2023. Retrieved 19 August 2024.
- ^ Browne, Adrian (24 September 2024). "Senedd backs U-turn on election gender quotas". BBC News. Retrieved 26 October 2024.
- ^ Price, Emily (29 May 2025). "Plaid Cymru reveals candidates for new Gwynedd Maldwyn constituency". nation.cymru. Retrieved 29 May 2025.
- ^ "Green leader says top priority is Senedd elections". Retrieved 11 September 2025.
- ^ "Colwyn Bay town councillor to stand at 2026 Senedd elections". Retrieved 3 October 2025.
- ^ Fortescue, Ali (2 February 2025). "Could we be about to witness a seismic political shift in Wales?". Sky News. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
- ^ Rodgers, Sienna (3 February 2025). "Plaid Cymru Leader Rules Out Working With Reform In Any Way". Politics Home. Archived from the original on 6 February 2025. Retrieved 6 February 2025.
- ^ Murrie, Ewan (23 April 2025). "Reform UK 'would work with any other Senedd party'". BBC News. Retrieved 23 April 2025.
- ^ "FAQs About Polling". British Polling Council.
- ^ "Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place". Nation.Cymru. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
- ^ Allen, Briony (6 August 2024). "Welsh Labour leadership: How Eluned Morgan was selected as first minister of Wales". Institute for Government. Retrieved 3 March 2025.
- ^ a b Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
- ^ Deans, David; James, Bethan (9 August 2023). "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
- ^ "Former Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething to stand down at next election". The Guardian. 7 September 2024. Retrieved 7 September 2024.
- ^ "Wales' 20mph minister to step down in 2026". BBC News. 24 October 2024. Retrieved 25 October 2024.
- ^ "Minister to quit ahead of Wales' 2026 election". BBC News. 17 January 2025. Retrieved 18 January 2025.
- ^ Price, Emily (24 January 2025). "Senior Labour politician to step down at next Senedd election". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 24 January 2025.
- ^ Mansfield, Mark (25 January 2025). "Joyce Watson announces she is stepping down at next Senedd election". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 25 January 2025.
- ^ Mosalski, Ruth (22 January 2025). "The Senedd members and ministers who won't stand for Senedd re-election". Wales Online. Retrieved 12 February 2025.
- ^ "Lesley Griffiths: Labour ex-minister quits ahead of 2026 election". www.bbc.com. 14 February 2025. Retrieved 17 February 2025.
- ^ "'It has been a huge honour': Long-serving Newport MS to step down". South Wales Argus. 17 February 2025. Retrieved 17 February 2025.
- ^ a b Browne, Adrian (21 February 2025). "UK's longest-serving female minister leaves Senedd". BBC News. Retrieved 22 February 2025.
- ^ Rathbone, Jenny [@JennyRathbone] (21 February 2025). "It has been my privilege to represent..." (Tweet). Retrieved 25 February 2025 – via Twitter.
- ^ Deans, David (22 April 2025). "Gambling charge Tory Russell George quits Senedd re-election bid". BBC News. Retrieved 22 April 2025.
- ^ Hayward, Will [@WillHayCardiff] (19 September 2025). "BREAKING Jeremy Miles has announced that..." (Tweet). Retrieved 19 September 2025 – via Twitter.
