Next Japanese general election

Next Japanese general election

← 2024 On or before 27 October 2028

All 465 seats in the House of Representatives
233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Sanae Takaichi October 2025 (3x4 cropped) (cropped).jpg
Yosuke Suzuki with Yoshihiko Noda 2024-10-20(3) (cropped).jpg
Hirofumi Yoshimura and Fujita Fumitake.png
Leader Sanae Takaichi Yoshihiko Noda Hirofumi Yoshimura
Fujita Fumitake
Party LDP CDP Ishin
Leader since 4 October 2025 23 September 2024 1 December 2024
8 August 2025
Leader's seat Nara 2nd Chiba 14th N/A[a]
Osaka 12th
Last election 191 seats 148 seats 38 seats
Current seats 196 148 35
Seats needed Increase38 Increase85 Increase198

 
Yūichirō Tamaki 2025-02-08(2) (cropped).jpg
Tetsuo Saito 20211004 (cropped).jpg
Taro Yamamoto 2022-6-26(1)(cropped).jpg
Leader Yuichiro Tamaki Tetsuo Saito Tarō Yamamoto
Party DPP Komeito Reiwa
Leader since 4 December 2024 9 November 2024 1 April 2019
Leader's seat Kagawa 2nd Hiroshima 3rd Did not stand[b]
Last election 28 seats 24 seats 9 seats
Current seats 27 24 9
Seats needed Increase206 Increase209 Increase224

 
Tomoko Tamura 2024-10-26(4) (cropped).jpg
Sohei Kamiya 2023-2-19(1) (cropped).jpg
Naoki Hyakuta cropped 2 Naoki Hyakuta and Kiyoaki Kawanami 20171029.jpg
Leader Tomoko Tamura Sohei Kamiya Naoki Hyakuta
Party JCP Sanseitō CPJ
Leader since 18 January 2024[c] 30 August 2023 1 September 2023
Leader's seat Tokyo PR block Did not stand[b] Did not stand[b]
Last election 8 seats 3 seats 3 seats
Current seats 8 3 2
Seats needed Increase225 Increase230 Increase230

Districts and PR districts, shaded according to winners' vote strength

Incumbent Prime Minister

Sanae Takaichi
LDP



A general election is scheduled to be held in Japan no later than 27 October 2028 to elect all 465 seats of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Voting will take place in all constituencies, including 289 single-seat electoral districts and 11 proportional blocks (176 seats).[1]

An election may occur before the scheduled date if the Prime Minister dissolves Parliament for a snap election or if the House of Representatives passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely during minority governments, as the Prime Minister does not command a majority in the House of Representatives and House of Councillors.

Background

[edit]

Premiership of Shigeru Ishiba

[edit]

The 2024 general election resulted in the loss of majority of the Liberal Democratic Party–Komeito governing coalition under Prime Minister Ishiba.[2]

In the snap election, the LDP, and its coalition partner the Komeito, lost its majority for the first time since 2009, while opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) made gains.[3] Two members of Ishiba's cabinet lost their seats, as the government was reduced to a minority status.[4] As no party controlled the House of Representatives, Ishiba was reelected Prime Minister in the Diet in a runoff vote, after opposition parties failed to coalesce around a single candidate. Ishiba reshuffled his cabinet.[5]

Elections for Japan's Upper House, the House of Councilors, were due in July 2025. Once again, the LDP–Komeito coalition lost its majority, as parties like the CDP and DPFP, as well as the far-right nationalist Sanseitō party, made gains.[6] After both elections, Ishiba invoked a parliamentary plurality in both houses, and believed the LDP had a responsibility to lead the government, as it would in most other parliamentary democracies.[7] Pressure continued to mount on Ishiba to resign as LDP President, but he refused and said he planned to continue serving as Prime Minister.[8]

Ishiba resigns, election of Sanae Takaichi as LDP leader

[edit]

On 7 September, Shigeru Ishiba announced that he would resign as President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan.[9][10][11] Ishiba stated he sought to claim "responsibility" as party leader for losses in recent elections, and to avoid dividing the party.[12] Ishiba's announcement effectively cancelled the emergency election process entirely. He instead instructed Moriyama, whose resignation had not been accepted by Ishiba, to begin the process to hold an extraordinary presidential election.[13] Ishiba said he determined now was the "appropriate time" to step aside, after a written version of the Japan–U.S. tariff agreement had been finalized.[14] Ishiba promised to continue serving as Prime Minister until a new leader was elected, and did not endorse a candidate in the subsequent election. His tenure lasted about one year.[15]

In the LDP leadership election on 5 October, Sanae Takaichi was elected as LDP's first woman president. In her first acts as party president, Takaichi appointed Tarō Asō as vice president and Shun'ichi Suzuki as secretary-general of the LDP.[16]

Collapse of LDP-Komeito coalition, new LDP government with Ishin support

[edit]

On 10 October, Komeito chief representative Tetsuo Saito announced that it would leave the ruling coalition, over disagreements with Takaichi's leadership and the party's handling of the slush fund scandal, ending 26 years of the LDP-Komeito coalition.[17] Following this, the vote to confirm Takaichi as prime minister was delayed to 20 October.[17] Opposition parties began exploring options to form a government without the LDP,[18] with even one LDP lawmaker raising the idea of Ishiba remaining as prime minister alongside Takaichi as party president, to save the coalition.[19]

Talks continued among the parties, with significant policy differences between the 3 opposition parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Ishin no Kai (JIP) [20] a significant obstacle for the formation of a non-LDP government. After meetings between the LDP with each of the 3 main opposition parties, with another separate joint meeting between the 3 opposition parties[21] on 20 October, Takaichi and Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura agreed to sign a confidence and supply agreement. As a result, Takaichi was elected prime minister by the Diet on 21 October, with the support of Ishin and independents.[22]

Electoral system

[edit]

The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting. Of these, 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party-list, which requires either ≥5 Diet members or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election, are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present on the party list. If they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats. However, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.

Political parties

[edit]
Parties Leader(s) Ideology Seats Status
Last election Current
Liberal Democratic Party Sanae Takaichi Conservatism
Japanese nationalism
191 / 465
191 / 465
Governing party
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Yoshihiko Noda Liberalism
148 / 465
148 / 465
Opposition
Japan Innovation Party Hirofumi Yoshimura
Fumitake Fujita
Conservatism
Right-wing populism
38 / 465
38 / 465
Confidence and supply
Democratic Party For the People Yuichiro Tamaki Conservatism
28 / 465
28 / 465
Opposition
Komeito Tetsuo Saito Social conservatism
Buddhist democracy
24 / 465
24 / 465
Reiwa Shinsengumi Tarō Yamamoto Progressivism
Left-wing populism
9 / 465
9 / 465
Japanese Communist Party Tomoko Tamura Communism
8 / 465
8 / 465
Sanseitō Sohei Kamiya Right-wing populism
Ultraconservatism
3 / 465
3 / 465
Conservative Party of Japan Naoki Hyakuta Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
3 / 465
3 / 465
Social Democratic Party Mizuho Fukushima Social democracy
1 / 465
1 / 465
Independents and others
12 / 465
12 / 465
Mixed[d]

Opinion polling

[edit]
LOESS curve of the party identification polling for the next Japanese general election with a 7-day average

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Yoshimura has been the governor of Osaka Prefecture since 8 April 2019.
  2. ^ a b c A member of the House of Councillors
  3. ^ As the party's chairperson
  4. ^ Of the 12 independents, six are in government through caucusing with the LDP, while six are in the opposition (four in Yūshi no Kai, two not in any caucus).

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "選挙の種類". 総務省.
  2. ^ "Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM". Kyodo News. 28 October 2024.
  3. ^ "Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM". Japan Wire by KYODO NEWS. 28 October 2024. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  4. ^ 産経新聞 (28 October 2024). "自公大敗、15年ぶり過半数割れ 立民140超・国民4倍増、政局流動化は必至 衆院選". 産経新聞:産経ニュース (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 6 November 2024. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  5. ^ "Japan: Shigeru Ishiba wins new term as PM in parliament run-off". www.bbc.com. 11 November 2024. Archived from the original on 11 November 2024. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  6. ^ "Japan's Long-Dominant Party Suffers Election Defeat as Voters Swing Right". 20 July 2025. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  7. ^ 日本放送協会 (21 July 2025). "石破首相 続投の意向 会見で正式に表明へ". NHKニュース (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 20 July 2025.
  8. ^ "Japan PM Ishiba says will stay in office after coalition's election defeat". Al Jazeera. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  9. ^ "Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns". www.bbc.com. 7 September 2025. Archived from the original on 7 September 2025. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  10. ^ "石破首相が退陣意向 自民党内の「石破おろし」耐えきれず、続投断念". The Asahi Shimbun. 7 September 2025. Archived from the original on 7 September 2025.
  11. ^ "石破首相が退陣意向と政権幹部、今夜記者会見 「前倒し要求」過半数の勢いで続投断念". Sankei Shimbun. 7 September 2025. Archived from the original on 7 September 2025.
  12. ^ "Japan's prime minister resigns after his party suffered a historic defeat in a summer elections". AP News. 7 September 2025. Archived from the original on 7 September 2025. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  13. ^ "Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns". POLITICO. 7 September 2025. Archived from the original on 7 September 2025. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  14. ^ "Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan Says He Will Step Down". 7 September 2025. Archived from the original on 7 September 2025. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  15. ^ Ninivaggi, Gabriele (7 September 2025). "Ishiba to quit as prime minister amid LDP discontent". The Japan Times. Archived from the original on 10 September 2025. Retrieved 8 September 2025.
  16. ^ "Soft-spoken Shunichi Suzuki is son of ex-PM and brother-in-law of Taro Aso". Mainichi Shimbun. 7 October 2025. Archived from the original on 10 October 2025.
  17. ^ a b Jie, Lim Hui (10 October 2025). "Takaichi's bid for Japan's premiership jolted as Komeito quits ruling coalition, NHK reports". CNBC. Retrieved 10 October 2025.
  18. ^ "Opposition leaders react to Komeito exit from Japan's ruling coalition". NHK World. 10 October 2025. Retrieved 10 October 2025.
  19. ^ "「総総分離でしのぐしかない」公明の連立離脱でささやかれだした仰天シナリオ". Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 10 October 2025. Retrieved 10 October 2025.
  20. ^ "3 Japan opposition parties remain apart on unified PM candidate". Kyodo News Agency. 15 October 2025. Retrieved 16 October 2025.
  21. ^ "3 Japan opposition parties remain apart on unified PM candidate". Kyodo News Agency. 15 October 2025. Retrieved 16 October 2025.
  22. ^ "LDP, major opposition Japan Innovation agree to start coalition talks". Kyodo News Agency. 15 October 2025. Retrieved 16 October 2025.